New analysis reveals how deforestation is disrupting seasonal moisture pathways
Dear Chris
Amazon Conservation’s Monitoring of the Andes Amazon Program (MAAP) released a new report updating its previous assessment of primary forest loss across the Amazon and adding a new layer of analysis examining how deforestation intersects with the seasonal moisture pathways that sustain the rainforest. MAAP #250: Amazon Tipping Point – Where Are We? (2026 Update) estimates that 97.06 million hectares (240 million acres) of primary forest had been lost across the Amazon biome by the end of 2025, representing 15% of its original forest cover. This is up from 13.2% in MAAP’s previous assessment ( MAAP #164 , 2022), which covered forest loss through 2021. Between 2022 and 2025 alone, an additional 13.04 million hectares (32.2 million acres) were lost, largely due to deforestation and fires, including record-breaking fire losses in 2024 following the strong 2023 El Niño event. The report’s key contribution is its seasonal analysis of the Amazon’s flying rivers , which transport moisture across the Basin . It finds that the pathways active during the dry and transition seasons have lost nearly three times more forest than the wet-season pathway. These findings are particularly important for southwestern Amazon regions in Peru and Bolivia, where more than 70% of rainfall depends on moisture recycled by forests across the Basin. The analysis reveals a clear contrast in forest loss across the Amazon’s moisture pathways. The wet-season pathway has lost 3.2% of its forest, compared with 9.1% along the transition-season pathway and 8.6% along the dry-season pathway, nearly three times as much forest loss in the latter two pathways. The findings also raise concerns ahead of a very strong El Niño forecast for late 2026. Previous MAAP report ( MAAP #248 ) suggests El Niño can disrupt moisture flows and increase fire risk, potentially intensifying pressures on regions whose seasonal moisture pathways are already heavily deforested. While scientific literature suggests the Amazon tipping point could be triggered at around 25% forest loss in combination with climate change, the threshold remains uncertain, and impacts may vary considerably across the biome. The report underscores the importance of monitoring not only how much forest is lost, but also where that loss occurs and how it affects the Amazon’s interconnected system.
Read the full press release.
Read the full report available in English , Spanish and Portuguese.
Please let us know at [email protected] if you would like to schedule an interview with Dr. Matt Finer, Director of MAAP and Senior Research Specialist at Amazon Conservation , or receive additional materials, maps, or images.
Best,
Priscila Steffen
Communications and PR Manager
Amazon Conservation Association
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Source: industry press release.