Written by Chris Fellows from The Farming Forum
The agricultural sector is facing a period of profound transition, driven by climate volatility, shifting geopolitical realities, and a fundamental lack of political understanding.Speaking at the 2026 Royal Agricultural Society of England Lectures, John Gummer, Rt Hon The Lord Deben, delivered a stark assessment of the legislative, economic, and market frameworks required to de-risk change for farm businesses. Drawing on over four decades of experience at the intersection of government, regulation, and business, his address was a direct challenge to both policymakers and the farming community to confront the facts of life.
Lord Deben, the UK’s longest-serving Secretary of State for the Environment and former Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, did not mince his words. He argued that the failure to learn from the past is a persistent and dangerous flaw in both politics and business.
“We are very bad at learning the lessons of the past,” he stated, noting that short-term thinking dominates decision-making. “That is what most people in business are thinking first off, is what’s going to happen in the next quarter, at the most, perhaps the next week.”
The Shift from Chemistry to Soil
Reflecting on his own political journey, Lord Deben highlighted the massive shift in agricultural thinking over the last half-century. He recalled a time when the prevailing wisdom was that “chemistry would actually deliver all that we needed,” and fertiliser was viewed as the “fifth acre.” The belief that this model could continue indefinitely was deeply entrenched in government.However, the reality of soil health and environmental degradation forced a reckoning. He credited pioneers like Lady Eve Balfour for understanding the fundamental issue: “that the soil mattered. That we couldn’t think about the future of farming unless we thought about what really made it possible, which was the soil.”This understanding is no longer a fringe view.
Lord Deben noted the remarkable degree to which regenerative farming has become a central issue for the sector.”We’ve understood that if we’re going to be able to feed the nation in 20 years’ time, we’ve actually got to do it in a different way from the way we thought we were going to have to do it in the past,” he said. This transition is not driven by ideology, but by economic necessity and the physical realities of farming. “It isn’t a competition between regenerative farming and successful competitive farming. The fact is that if we want to be here farming in 20 years’ time… we have really got to look after the soil, we have got to think about fertility and we have also got to think about the loss of soil.”
The Political Disconnect
A central theme of Lord Deben’s lecture was the profound disconnect between the realities of food production and the political class. He argued that the UK has lost its understanding of agriculture at the centre of government. “We are not a nation which has any understanding of agriculture at the centre,” he warned.
“There is not a member of the present cabinet that represents a properly rural constituency. There’s not a member of them that has got any idea of agriculture.”
This lack of understanding has severe consequences for policy coherence and the creation of stable conditions for long-term investment. Lord Deben pointed to recent tax decisions and the failure to make agriculture a central part of the sustainability agenda as evidence that the government has “lost the confidence of those who will produce the food.”The problem is compounded by the increasingly urban focus of British politics. “We’ve allowed our whole politics to become urban based, and urban decisions are made by urban people,” he observed. The nine million people living in the countryside have, in his view, lost their voice. He warned that the removal of hereditary peers from the House of Lords would further diminish the representation of the agricultural tradition in Parliament, removing a crucial balance in the political system.
This political blind spot extends to the fundamental issue of food security. Lord Deben recounted past conversations with senior politicians who dismissed the need for a sustainable food policy, arguing that the UK could simply buy its food from the rest of the world. “That’s the situation into which we’ve got,” he said. “Got ourselves into a political situation in which we have believed that what is will go on forever.”
Climate Volatility and Resource Management
The assumption that global supply chains will always provide is being shattered by climate change and geopolitical instability. Lord Deben emphasised that the weather, always a primary concern for farmers, is becoming increasingly extreme and unpredictable. Drawing on his own experience in Suffolk, he noted that spring now arrives 17 days earlier than it did 50 years ago, disrupting the delicate timing of pollination and fertility.
While the UK may be less severely impacted by climate change than some other regions, such as southern Europe, which is facing devastating floods and droughts, the effects on domestic agriculture are already profound. He cited the recent difficulties faced by British Sugar, which had to extend its campaign period by two months because farmers physically could not get the sugar beet out of the waterlogged ground. “The government finds food very difficult, because it doesn’t know anything about how you produce food,” he remarked. “It doesn’t understand that if the weather is bad, you can’t dig the sugar beet out.”Beyond soil, Lord Deben identified water management as a critical failure of national infrastructure.
He expressed sheer disbelief at the current approach: “What the blazes are we doing? Pumping thousands of gallons of water out of eastern England at this moment, knowing that we will be short of water by the time we get to July.”He warned that in the inevitable battle for water resources, “it is the towns that win, because that is where the votes are.” Farmers who depend on irrigation will find it increasingly unavailable or prohibitively expensive. The urgent need for a national strategy on water storage and management is, he argued, not being met by the current government’s actions.
The Challenge to the Sector
Lord Deben did not limit his critique to politicians; he issued a direct challenge to the agricultural community itself. He argued that farmers must take active responsibility for ensuring their voices are heard.”If you are not a member of a political party seeking to get changes you should be ashamed of yourselves,” he told the audience. He pointed out that in the past, the farming community exerted significant pressure on candidates and Members of Parliament.
Today, that pressure has dissipated. When he asked the audience how many had visited their MP in the last six months to discuss agriculture or climate change, only a fraction raised their hands.
“If they don’t hear from you it’s not surprising they say nobody ever talks to me about climate change. Nobody ever talks to me about agriculture,” he stated.
He urged the sector to engage forcefully with the political process, regardless of party affiliation, to ensure that policymakers understand the realities of the countryside and the necessity of producing food in an environmentally sustainable way.
Conclusion
Creating the conditions for innovation in agriculture requires more than just technological advancement; it requires a coherent legislative and economic framework that recognises the physical realities of farming. Lord Deben’s lecture made it clear that the current political environment is failing to provide this stability.The transition to a resilient, sustainable agricultural system is an economic necessity, driven by the undeniable facts of soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate volatility.
However, until the political class understands how food is actually produced, and until the agricultural community forces them to listen, the necessary frameworks to de-risk this change will remain elusive. The challenge for the sector is not just to innovate in the field, but to innovate in how it engages with the corridors of power.
Read the full write up of the RASE Lectures on The Famring Forum here.
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